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This is our mid-year update on the long-term expected returns of various asset classes, a calculation we perform twice annually. After April lows for stock prices, the rebound in stock prices has been rapid. High returns for stocks today often mean lower returns in the future. This update aims to quantify for you just how much of future returns have been pulled forward. Our estimates are grounded in first principles: the fundamental driver of value is future cash flows. For b

Every time the stock market falls, media headlines suggest reasons to wait before buying (i.e. trying to time markets). In early 2025, the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 27, which was the highest it had been in 25 years, excluding a short period during the 2021 COVID lockdowns.  While this implied that US stocks were expensive and future returns would be low, bank research departments held a bullish outlook on future returns. During the “tariff tantrum” in April,

For decades, investors have sought "defensive" equities—stocks that hold up during market downturns. Traditional thinking favors stable,...

Our founder and Chief Investment Officer is interviewed about why it is so hard to outperform the stock market. At Greenline Partners,...

Executive Summary Current Valuation Perspective : The S&P 500's current P/E of 27 may appear high historically, but it doesn't signal a bubble, as today's profitable growth companies differ significantly from past periods that favored growth stocks.   Earnings Quality Analysis : Historical data indicates that unprofitable growth stocks tend to underperform, especially in speculative environments. However, today’s leading growth stocks feature high profit margins and cash flow

One of the key characteristics of a good financial advisory firm is alignment with clients and minimal conflicts of interest. But what...

At Greenline Partners, we leverage many invaluable lessons from our experience at the world’s largest hedge fund—not just about effective...